Very nice. I'd only point out that the real Malthus is poorly served by catastrophist neo-Malthusians. As far as I'm aware, Malthus's theory was about how causes both natural and man-made tended to keep population in balance; i.e. not a catastrophe at all. But I know it's all very controversial.
Generative AI is definitely a cornucopia. Whenever I need an illustration for a substack post, most of the time I can get exactly whatever I need for free in a few minutes, trying a few prompts. Before that, I could either google search for a similar image (a beta version cornucopia) and copy it shamelessly or just have to buy a copyrighted stock photo from a repository or hire an illustrator.
The stock photo creators, distributors and illustrators are the anti-cornucopianists in this scenario. While AI ruins their business by providing a free alternative for professional writers & legacy media that would otherwise use their products/services, it opens a myriad of possibilities for amateur writers and creators who wouldn't care or afford it in the first place.
Cette article m’a spontanément fait penser à la philosophie bouddhiste qui dit que les « ressources intérieurs » de l’humain sont infinies et une bien meilleure source de bonheur que les « ressources extérieurs ».
L’esprit/l’âme/le cerveau humain est la corne d’abondance. Le cerveau a, bien sure, besoins d’un minimum de ressources extérieurs pour se développer, vivre et créer.
Mais, pourrait-on dire que certains cerveaux produisent plus de ressources qu’ils en consomment? Donc, un surplus se crée, d’où l’abondance.
Pourrait-on arriver à un point de cassure où nous n’avons plus de ressources pour développer ni soigner les cerveaux? La magie disparaitrai sans qu’on puisse la faire réapparaître.
Bon, j’imagine que c’est ici le débat: oui, c’est possible personne n’est à l’abri d’une catastrophe vs non, c’est impossible, on aura toujours une solution.
Un certain pessimisme est sain pour éviter de s’assoir sur nos lauriers et de stagner.
Un certain optimisme est sain pour éviter le désespoir et la paralysie.
Il est tout à fait possible de ruiner l'environnement de sorte que les ressources nécessaires à la vie deviennent trop rares pour soutenir la population et mènent à une spirale d'effondrement. Ça s'est produit de nombreuses fois dans l'histoire, dans des petites sociétés, par exemple sur l'Île de Pâques, chez les Mayas, au Groenland viking. Par contre il n'y a pas de précédent pour une civilisation aussi populeuse et riche que celle qui peuple présentement presque toute la Terre.
The Roots of Progress looks very interesting and I will be exploring their site.
Have you heard of Thomas Gale Moore Senior Fellow Hoover Institution Stanford University? He wrote about progress in his work “ON PROGRESS: ITS REALITY, DESIRABILITY, AND DESTINY” (1994) which is pertinent.
Apparently, I am a cornucopian. Very excited to discover this. I have always been interested in post millenarianism and prophesies about the coming golden age. At first it seemed to be pure allegory and or wishful thinking but then I started thinking about how it could actually happen. This led me to discover many concepts and ongoing projects that could be brought together to actually turn our planet into a true garden of Eden, literally paradise on earth. One of, if not the most important of these is permaculture which is based on ecology and systems thinking. It’s about more than just building abundant and resilient backyard gardens. It is directly concerned with every aspect of human culture and civilization. Lots of people are working on the concept and applications such as neourban planning.
Another amazing project is coming from HMI and the work of Allan Savory building topsoil with holistically managed bio intensive rotational succession grazing. Living topsoil naturally sequesters carbon. The higher the carbon content of soil the more water it can hold like a sponge so it also solves the soil called water crisis. This is reclaiming degraded land all over the world. One of the most exciting projects of this concept is taking place in the Sahel along the southern border of the Sahara where desertification is being reversed. 7,000 years ago the Sahara was green and will be again within a few decades.
Hey, I just wanted to quickly comment on a point you made about Allan Savory. I had never heard of him so I looked him up and one of the first articles I found was this one:
While I haven't read it competely yet, the basic gist is that there is no scientific validation of his methods, all experiments (and there were many big ones) came to the result that his "holistic management" doesn't work. Allan Savory says himself that it's impossible to scientifcally validate his methods which is obvious a giant red flag and the literal opposite of science. A unverifiable theory is basically worthless in the scientific community.
This isn't to say that scientific progress can't fix soil or climate change, just that Allan Savory isn't really a good example.
I think it’s pretty clear that the AI “doomers” are actually much closer to technological optimists than the average person and it’s unfair to lump them in with malthusians. An inherent corollary to believing that ASI could drive humans to extinction is that it could also take progress to unimaginable heights. The key issue for “doomers” is the word could. In all other domains people who believe in the promise of technology powerful enough to end humanity or scarcity are your natural allies. Indeed, the cornucopia as described sounds an awful lot like aligned ASI
I agree. This post is intentionally not about AI doom or indeed AI anything specifically, though obviously there are a lot of common themes, starting with the magic metaphor.
From now on I’m calling myself a cornucopian! We do need to reclaim the magic!
Very nice. I'd only point out that the real Malthus is poorly served by catastrophist neo-Malthusians. As far as I'm aware, Malthus's theory was about how causes both natural and man-made tended to keep population in balance; i.e. not a catastrophe at all. But I know it's all very controversial.
Yeah malthusianism is kind of a meme that has diverged quite strongly from Malthus's actual ideas (as far as I know)
Generative AI is definitely a cornucopia. Whenever I need an illustration for a substack post, most of the time I can get exactly whatever I need for free in a few minutes, trying a few prompts. Before that, I could either google search for a similar image (a beta version cornucopia) and copy it shamelessly or just have to buy a copyrighted stock photo from a repository or hire an illustrator.
The stock photo creators, distributors and illustrators are the anti-cornucopianists in this scenario. While AI ruins their business by providing a free alternative for professional writers & legacy media that would otherwise use their products/services, it opens a myriad of possibilities for amateur writers and creators who wouldn't care or afford it in the first place.
Cette article m’a spontanément fait penser à la philosophie bouddhiste qui dit que les « ressources intérieurs » de l’humain sont infinies et une bien meilleure source de bonheur que les « ressources extérieurs ».
L’esprit/l’âme/le cerveau humain est la corne d’abondance. Le cerveau a, bien sure, besoins d’un minimum de ressources extérieurs pour se développer, vivre et créer.
Mais, pourrait-on dire que certains cerveaux produisent plus de ressources qu’ils en consomment? Donc, un surplus se crée, d’où l’abondance.
Pourrait-on arriver à un point de cassure où nous n’avons plus de ressources pour développer ni soigner les cerveaux? La magie disparaitrai sans qu’on puisse la faire réapparaître.
Bon, j’imagine que c’est ici le débat: oui, c’est possible personne n’est à l’abri d’une catastrophe vs non, c’est impossible, on aura toujours une solution.
Un certain pessimisme est sain pour éviter de s’assoir sur nos lauriers et de stagner.
Un certain optimisme est sain pour éviter le désespoir et la paralysie.
Il est tout à fait possible de ruiner l'environnement de sorte que les ressources nécessaires à la vie deviennent trop rares pour soutenir la population et mènent à une spirale d'effondrement. Ça s'est produit de nombreuses fois dans l'histoire, dans des petites sociétés, par exemple sur l'Île de Pâques, chez les Mayas, au Groenland viking. Par contre il n'y a pas de précédent pour une civilisation aussi populeuse et riche que celle qui peuple présentement presque toute la Terre.
😯
The Roots of Progress looks very interesting and I will be exploring their site.
Have you heard of Thomas Gale Moore Senior Fellow Hoover Institution Stanford University? He wrote about progress in his work “ON PROGRESS: ITS REALITY, DESIRABILITY, AND DESTINY” (1994) which is pertinent.
Apparently, I am a cornucopian. Very excited to discover this. I have always been interested in post millenarianism and prophesies about the coming golden age. At first it seemed to be pure allegory and or wishful thinking but then I started thinking about how it could actually happen. This led me to discover many concepts and ongoing projects that could be brought together to actually turn our planet into a true garden of Eden, literally paradise on earth. One of, if not the most important of these is permaculture which is based on ecology and systems thinking. It’s about more than just building abundant and resilient backyard gardens. It is directly concerned with every aspect of human culture and civilization. Lots of people are working on the concept and applications such as neourban planning.
Another amazing project is coming from HMI and the work of Allan Savory building topsoil with holistically managed bio intensive rotational succession grazing. Living topsoil naturally sequesters carbon. The higher the carbon content of soil the more water it can hold like a sponge so it also solves the soil called water crisis. This is reclaiming degraded land all over the world. One of the most exciting projects of this concept is taking place in the Sahel along the southern border of the Sahara where desertification is being reversed. 7,000 years ago the Sahara was green and will be again within a few decades.
Yesssssss!!! 🙌
Hey, I just wanted to quickly comment on a point you made about Allan Savory. I had never heard of him so I looked him up and one of the first articles I found was this one:
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2017-2-march-april/feature/allan-savory-says-more-cows-land-will-reverse-climate-change
While I haven't read it competely yet, the basic gist is that there is no scientific validation of his methods, all experiments (and there were many big ones) came to the result that his "holistic management" doesn't work. Allan Savory says himself that it's impossible to scientifcally validate his methods which is obvious a giant red flag and the literal opposite of science. A unverifiable theory is basically worthless in the scientific community.
This isn't to say that scientific progress can't fix soil or climate change, just that Allan Savory isn't really a good example.
A lot has occurred in the last 7 years. Keep exploring 😉
https://holisticmanagement.org/
btw there's a sentence fragment at the end of the paragraph starting "One thing that’s great about progress studies and"
deleted, thanks!
I think it’s pretty clear that the AI “doomers” are actually much closer to technological optimists than the average person and it’s unfair to lump them in with malthusians. An inherent corollary to believing that ASI could drive humans to extinction is that it could also take progress to unimaginable heights. The key issue for “doomers” is the word could. In all other domains people who believe in the promise of technology powerful enough to end humanity or scarcity are your natural allies. Indeed, the cornucopia as described sounds an awful lot like aligned ASI
I agree. This post is intentionally not about AI doom or indeed AI anything specifically, though obviously there are a lot of common themes, starting with the magic metaphor.